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在一个碳限制的世界里，氢的经济学

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在一个碳限制的世界里，氢的经济学

大卫·坎宁安

主要投资经理

The current COVID-19 crisis has placed a lens over the energy sector and how it responds to future requirements. 氢在全球能源模式转型中扮演着重要角色能提供全球20%的二氧化碳吗₂ 到2050年需要减少排放量, however, the scale of that role in tomorrow’s economy will depend on its economic viability.

以前, my colleagues have been sharing 的见解 on the potential of hydrogen and its contribution to the global energy transition. 艾伦·莫蒂默讨论了其清洁能源资质奥马尔·贝达尼塑造的挑战扩大氢气生产规模亚当·弗鲁(Adam Frew)就如何做到这一点提出了观点在交通运输领域采用更可持续的燃料组合.

现在，我想从经济角度来看待围绕氢的炒作.

氢的需求

氢已经是全球经济环境的重要组成部分, primarily for use in either de-sulphuring natural gas or - more importantly - for the production of fertilisers. Feeding the world’s growing population will therefore play a significant source of ongoing 氢的需求 in the years ahead.

Global food production is currently dependent upon Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) to produce hydrogen which is then combined with nitrogen to produce ammonia for fertilisers. 然而, SMR has a high carbon intensity and so consequently hydrogen production represents around 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions today.

预计到2050年全球人口将增长20亿将意味着到2050年，对氨的需求可能会翻一番但全球碳减排目标将意味着这一点生产方法本身也必须去碳化.

氢的需求

绿色氢的成本

到2030年，氢解决方案的成本预计将下降50%, but it’s a complicated process to try and estimate the long-term price of green hydrogen – which is hydrogen produced without emissions via water electrolysis that can be powered by electricity from renewable sources. 目前绿色氢市场的特点是部署率低, 不到140兆瓦. 然而, small-scale projects are showing evidence of feasibility and could mitigate future carbon price changes that will impact on overall project costs in relation to carbon emissions.

如果我们假设电解槽容量可以扩大, it’s likely ammonia could be produced from green hydrogen for at least twice the cost of ammonia from SMR. The burning of natural gas could still be competitive with the current cost of green hydrogen. SMR hydrogen production is scalable to very large capacities and presents a very competitive investment cost, 但它受到处置或使用所收集的一氧化碳的挑战₂. 显然是创新, 规模经济和学习率的成本差异将随着时间的推移而缩小.

如果我们再看一下可再生能源市场的一些基本面, prices continue to drop and power generation capacity is up; wind turbine manufacturing, solar (polysilicon) and battery storage (handheld devices) benefit from established supply chains which have been instrumental in rapidly reducing the cost of renewable power and battery storage systems. Unfortunately, electrolyser and fuel cell technologies do not benefit from similar developments. 因此, it is likely the pace of hydrogen cost reduction will be slower by comparison.

绿色氢的主要可寻址市场

The initial focus for hydrogen production will be decarbonisation of ammonia for supply to the fertiliser market. There is very little evidence of substitute products to displace hydrogen for fertiliser at significant scale. 因此, 缺乏低成本的替代品, 用于食品生产的氨气价格应高于电力供应价格, 运输燃料或加热要求. It is probable that green hydrogen will eventually supply the ammonia as a first market adopter.

尽管如此, the role for clean hydrogen in energy applications is more positive in areas of the economy which are technically hard to decarbonise. 工业加热过程约占全球温室气体排放量的五分之一. 消除这些排放对于实现2050年净零排放目标至关重要.

氢的需求

Within the industrial heat sector, steel and cement require the highest temperatures for production. Virgin steel production from coal fed blast furnaces is approximately half the cost of steel production using renewable powered hydrogen plant. 如果我们考虑天然气与绿色氢的差距缩小到35%左右.

随着食品, 纸张和铝需要较低的温度, electric arc furnaces can be installed in place of fossil fuel fed systems for these sub-sectors. 电流通过烤箱顶部的巨大电极，形成电弧. 它们往往效率更高，使用电力作为动力源, while also side-stepping energy intensive electrolysis processes evident in water electrolysis to split water for hydrogen production.

到目前为止, there is very little evidence of traded or transported liquified hydrogen approaching commercial viability. It is probable this market dynamic will remain for a number of decades as hydrogen production lends itself to regions with local production and the cost efficiencies that brings.

电网是一个可寻址的市场吗? As the cost of renewable power undercuts traditional power generation across global markets, it is inevitable that increased levels of intermittent renewable energy will raise the cost of balancing the grid. 在电网需要能源的需求时期, 氢可以用来确保所需的电量是正确的. This will depend on its competitiveness against a combination of other energy alternatives such as hydroelectric, 热存储, 电动汽车, battery storage and inter-connectors (where energy flows between electricity and natural gas networks).

氢’s market opportunity will depend on its competitiveness with the renewable hydrogen market. The sectors which are hardest to decarbonise and which less sensitive to changes in price will be the key addressable markets for green hydrogen production in an increasingly carbon constrained global market. 最初, this may well favour the production of carbon-free ammonia to support food production for a growing population over the energy sector.